Who is the major player for 2022 China extreme heat wave? Western Pacific Subtropical high or South Asian high?

Abstract

A long-lasting, wide-ranging, and record-breaking extreme high-temperature (EHT) event hit China in the summer of 2022, causing adverse impacts on electricity supply, agriculture, and people's livelihoods. The abnormal persistence of the eastward-shifted South Asian high (SAH) in the upper troposphere was the dominant driver of the durative enhancement of EHT and can explain approximately 55.7% of the event's occurrence, compared to the 14.5% contribution of western Pacific Subtropical high (WPSH) to this event. As the SAH extends eastward, the East Asian westerly jet tends to shift northward, the combination of which could have caused persistent descending motion over East China and thus evoked the EHT. The eastward shift of the SAH in summer 2022 was jointly affected by the preceding-spring record-low snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau, the contemporaneous record-low aerosol levels in East China, the record-high precipitation of Indian subcontinent and the record-high sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic since 1990. Notably, during 1990–2022, for the 2022-like EHT, only 38.43% of that is related to the couple of westward-shifting WPSH and eastward-extending SAH. Approximately 47.6% of 2022-like EHT is just corresponding to an abnormally eastward-extending SAH, suggesting the non-negligible role of SAH in the China's EHT prediction.