Which spatial distribution model best predicts the occurrence of dominant species in semi-arid rangeland of northern Iran?

Abstract

Rangelands with more than 8000 plant species occupy nearly 54.6% of the land area of Iran and thus are accounted for a rich plant genetic storage. Mazandaran province has 378,000 ha of rangelands with high plant species richness and diversity due to its climate conditions but plants distribution is at risk because of non-principle management, land use change and as a result changing environmental factors. Vegetation management strategies can be guided by models that predict plant species distribution based on governing environmental variables. This is especially useful for the dominant species that determine ecosystem processes. In fact, modelling algorithm in each SDM determines its suitability for different ecosystems. Our aim was to compare the predictive power of a number of SDMs and to evaluate the importance of a range of environmental variables as predictors in the context of semi-arid rangeland vegetation. The selected study area, the Sarkhas rangelands (northern Iran, 36°10′ 42˝ N - 51°19′ 11˝ E), covers approximately 4358.9 ha of Mazandaran province. The efficacy of four different modelling techniques as well as Ensemble model was evaluated to predict the distribution of five dominant forage plant species (Vicia villosa, Stachys lavandulifolia, Coronilla balansae, Sanguisorba minor and Alopecurus textilis). The used models included artificial neural network (ANN), boosted regression trees (BRT), classification and regression trees (CART), and random forest (RF). Ensemble, RF and CART had the highest area under curve. The AUC obtained for Vicia villosa, Stachys lavandulifolia, Coronilla balansae, Sanguisorba minor and Alopecurus textilis, were 0.90, 0.72, 0.76, 0.69 and 0.75 respectively. Ensemble model was the model that most consistently demonstrated high predictive power across species in the rangeland context investigated here. BRT exhibited the least predictive power. An importance analysis of variables showed that soil organic C according to the CART model (0.396) and K according to the RF model (0.396) were the most important environmental variables.