Which Indicators Explain Metropolitan Economic Performance Best? Traditional or Creative Class

Abstract

Problem: As Richard Florida's writings about the creative class garnered attention across the globe, planners and local government officials responded by enacting policies to attract and retain creative workers, often favoring spending for amenity and lifestyle attractions over more established economic development approaches. It is not clear, however, if the presence of these workers drives regional growth and development as effectively as more traditionally accepted place-based and institutional factors. Purpose: In this article we explore the relationships between the presence of the creative class and regional economic performance, contrasting measures of regional creative capacity with traditional competitiveness factors. Methods: We examine how Florida's creative class measures correlate with each other and with common indicators of economic performance for U.S. metropolitan areas. We also estimate multivariate regression models to compare the influence of Florida's measures to those of more traditional indicators of economic competitiveness on metropolitan job growth, income growth, and job instability. Results and conclusions: We find that differences in Florida's measures of creativity are not generally associated with differences in metropolitan economic performance. Indicators of human capital and industry composition perform as well or better than talent, tolerance, and technology in explaining metropolitan job and income growth and job instability. Takeaway for practice: Since we find measures derived from Florida's creative class hypotheses to be no more associated with positive economic outcomes than traditional competitiveness measures, we do not advocate replacing traditional economic development strategies with those based primarily on attracting the creative class. Programs supporting education, business creation, and industrial diversity are more likely to be effective tools for promoting economic well-being. Research support: We received support from the Center for the Study of the American South and the Office of Economic and Business Development's Program on Southern Politics, Media, and Public Life, both of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.