Where will older adults reside? Evidence from Calgary, Canada

Abstract

The population is rapidly aging both globally and locally, but the aging process varies by community and over time within a given region. In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal trends of aging communities over the course of more than two decades (1996–2019) in Calgary, Canada, using the emerging hotspot analysis technique. We also forecasted the aging population in communities of concern for the next decade using forest-based regression. The findings demonstrate that the city has experienced decentralization of its aging population at the community level over time. This trend will continue to be observed in the foreseeable future owing to the recent influx of younger generations into central locations and increased life expectancy, along with people's willingness to age in community. The outcomes of this study provide a clearer picture of the trajectory of aging at the community level and help decision-makers prioritize communities for planning and social work interventions to ensure aging in community. Furthermore, our methodology can be used to understand spatiotemporal trends in aging communities in other locations.