Where to forestation in dry-wet transition areas of China?

Abstract

As global warming intensifies, forestation has been recognized as an effective measure for mitigating climate change. However, current research often overlooks the potential for forestation in dry-wet transition areas and lacks scientific quantitative methods for assessing the suitability of forestation in these regions. This study offers a detailed analysis aimed at accurately predicting the potential for forestation within China's dry-wet transition areas. The findings indicate that these areas, spanning 71 million hectares across North, Northeast, and Northwest China, align closely with the Heihe-Tengchong Line and the Three-North Shelter Forest project. Despite the need for soil quality improvement, these regions exhibit the fundamental conditions required for forestation. Climatically, the mid-temperate zone, characterized by a mild climate and moderate rainfall, holds the greatest forestation potential (52.7 Mha), followed by the southern temperate and plateau climate zones, which, despite lower rainfall and higher altitudes, still provide substantial opportunities for tree planting. At the provincial level, Inner Mongolia offers the highest potential with 32.7 Mha, followed by Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Xinjiang, which possess vast arid and semi-arid landscapes conducive to ecological restoration and desertification control. In contrast, highly urbanized regions such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Jiangsu show limited potential due to land scarcity. The study highlights optimal forestation scenarios while acknowledging the substantial costs associated with land modification, irrigation, and forest management. These economic factors must be carefully weighed against the ecological benefits of forestation to guide effective policy decisions in these regions.