When will China's passenger vehicle sector reach CO2 emissions peak? A life cycle approach based on system dynamics

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The Chinese automobile industry is taking steps to reduce sectoral carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by electrifying the passenger vehicle fleet in light of the carbon emission peak commitment. As most studies either focus on the fuel use or apply static inputs, there is a lack of dynamic fleet-based analysis considering every life-cycle phase. In this study, a hybrid life-cycle assessment is combined with a system dynamics model to simulate changes in the number of vehicles in different life-cycle phases in order to produce a more accurate estimation of sectoral CO 2 emissions and the peak time for the passenger vehicle sector. The detailed data on vehicle sales, in use, and disposal is collected, and a scenario analysis is constructed, considering two crucial factors: the future market share of electric vehicles (EV) and projected improvements in fuel consumption. The results indicate that for different market shares, peak time is estimated to be between 2029 and 2031, with sectoral CO 2 emissions peak ranging from 1196 to 1253 million tons. However, if fuel consumption does not improve as in the real world, the passenger vehicle sector will be unable to reach the CO 2 emissions peak within the simulation period, ending up with 1513 million tons by 2035, despite the sectoral CO 2 emissions curve appearing smooth in the simulation period's final years. These findings suggest that the market share of EVs has a modest impact on CO 2 emissions, and fuel consumption is more crucial for achieving the peak. There is a need to establish a public platform to monitor the gap between certified and real-world fuel consumption.