When Second‐Best is Still a No‐Brainer: Why Labour Should Shoot for a Majority Coalition in May 2015

Ben Yong,Tim Bale

doi:10.1111/1467-923x.12143

Abstract

AbstractThe chances of Labour winning the 2015 general election with a comfortable overall majority are vanishingly small. It could, however, emerge as the largest party or finish just a handful of seats behind the Conservatives. Either scenario would give it at least a chance—and a bigger chance than many realise, we argue—of forming a government. In that event, Labour may be faced with a choice between getting together with another party (or parties) to form a majority coalition or else forming a minority government (either on its own or with one or more partners), which could assemble different majorities for different pieces of legislation or try to negotiate a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement. Given the precedents from the UK and overseas, we argue that, faced with this dilemma, Labour should do all it can to form a majority coalition. We also argue that Labour can learn some useful lessons from the Cameron–Clegg coalition.

Highlights

When second-best is still a no-brainer: Why Labour should shoot for a majority coalition in May 2015 Ben Yong and Tim Bale
It says a lot about the uncertainty that currently surrounds the general election that there is one thing that everyone seems sure of, namely that it will not produce a comfortable Commons majority for either Labour or the Conservatives
The Tories, having effectively abandoned the ‘vote blue, go green’, ‘compassionate conservative’, ‘modernisation’ agenda pursued by David Cameron when he first became leader, will find it difficult to do much, if any better, than they did in 2010

Summary

Minority government

The first of these options – minority government – is much misunderstood. For one thing, it seems to go against the logic of the UK’s traditionally majoritarian, winnertakes-all political system: how can a government which does not control more than half of the seats in the Commons hope to function and to survive? For another, there is a widespread but arguably mistaken assumption that this is an option that is somehow automatically open to the leader of the largest party in the Commons, especially perhaps if that leader is the sitting prime minister. As the party’s negotiators quite rightly argued in 2010, it may represent the worst rather than the best of both worlds, securing them just as much blame but far less power.[7] All-in-all, it seems likely that, if Labour decides it wants or needs them, the Lib Dems will come running, even if they feign a degree of reluctance in order to improve their bargaining position All this presumes, that their cooperation is not being simultaneously sought by the Conservatives. If that is the case, it would be entirely understandable, not so much because the Lib Dems are electorally toxic or because imagining a deal with them would incur the wrath of trade union leaders like McCluskey, but because the very existence of such a group would risk shattering the illusion that Labour is gunning for an overall majority – an illusion still deemed to be important in order to maintain the morale of activists

Majority Coalition

Findings

Conclusion