Abstract
Hydrogen metallurgy technology is considered a key technology for the iron and steel industry to achieve carbon neutrality. However, it has been slow to be widely promoted in China due to factors such as stranded costs from carbon metallurgy equipment, hydrogen production costs, consumer preferences, and carbon costs. Based on these comprehensive consideration, this paper establishes a predictive model for investment timing of hydrogen metallurgy projects, takes an example of a Chinese steel enterprise with medium production scale. The research results show that the hydrogen metallurgy project with a hydrogen-rich blast furnace injection technology (hydrogen-rich BF) route is the most economically advantageous after 2026; after 2048, the net income of the hydrogen metallurgy project with a hydrogen-based shaft furnace direct reduction technology (hydrogen-based DRI) route will be greater than the stranded costs of carbon metallurgy projects, making it the most economically advantageous project. However, market dynamics and equipment variations significantly influence project viability.
Published Version
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