When and why microbial-explicit soil organic carbon models can be unstable

Abstract

Abstract. Microbial-explicit soil organic carbon (SOC) cycling models are increasingly being recognized for their advantages over linear models in describing SOC dynamics. These models are known to exhibit oscillations, but it is not clear when they yield stable vs. unstable equilibrium points (EPs) – i.e., EPs that exist analytically but are not stable in relation to small perturbations and cannot be reached by transient simulations. The occurrence of such unstable EPs can lead to unexpected model behavior in transient simulations or unrealistic predictions of steady-state soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Here, we ask when and why unstable EPs can occur in an archetypal microbial-explicit model (representing SOC, dissolved OC (DOC), microbial biomass, and extracellular enzymes) and some simplified versions of it. Further, if a model formulation allows for physically meaningful but unstable EPs, can we find constraints in the model parameters (i.e., environmental conditions and microbial traits) that ensure stability of the EPs? We use analytical, numerical, and descriptive tools to answer these questions. We found that instability can occur when the resupply of a growth substrate (DOC) is (via a positive feedback loop) dependent on its abundance. We identified a conservative, sufficient condition in terms of model parameters to ensure the stability of EPs. Principally, three distinct strategies can avoid instability: (1) neglecting explicit DOC dynamics, (2) biomass-independent uptake rate, or (3) correlation between parameter values to obey the stability criterion. While the first two approaches simplify some mechanistic processes, the third approach points to the interactive effects of environmental conditions and parameters describing microbial physiology, highlighting the relevance of basic ecological principles for the avoidance of unrealistic (i.e., unstable) simulation outcomes. These insights can help to improve the applicability of microbial-explicit models, aid our understanding of the dynamics of these models, and highlight the relation between mathematical requirements and (in silico) microbial ecology.