Wheat Breeding Strategies under Climate Change based on CERES-Wheat Model

Abstract

Climate change has inevitably had a negative impact on agricultural production and food security. Crop breeding improvement is an efficient option to adapt to future climate and increase grain production. To study the potential to provide valuable advice for breeding under climate change condition, the crop growth model was used as basis to investigate, the effects of the cultivar genotype parameters of the crop estimation through resource and environment synthesis-wheat (CERES-Wheat) model on yield under different climate scenarios. In this study, solar radiation had a positive effect on the yield of winter wheat, while the effects of daily temperature change conditions on yield were vague, particularly under a change in daily maximum temperature. For the seven cultivar genotype parameters in the CERES-Wheat model, the yield had an approximately linear increasing relationship with kernel number (G1) and kernel size (G2). Vernalization days (P1V) had a fluctuating effect on winter yield without an evident unidirectional tendency. The yield of winter wheat increased with an increase in photoperiodic response (P1D) when P1D values varied from 64.81 to 79.81. Phyllochron interval (PHINT) had a positive impact on the yield of winter wheat. This study presented the potential benefits of the crop growth model to provide directional suggestions for crop breeding.