What will happen to the “American Dream”? Four scenarios for opportunity in the United States to 2035

Abstract

Purpose – To further a dialog about the future of opportunities in America, this exercise imagines what life would be like in four alternative possibilities, or scenarios, emerging from now to the year 2035. Design/methodology/approach – The logical basis for these four possible futures is that technological, political, economic and social factors – and the decisions of voters and their leaders–will result in either many or few opportunities which will be available to many or few players. Findings – The central question is what scenario do we really want to live in and what decisions need to be taken to increase its likelihood of occurring? Conversely, which future is the most undesirable and what can we do to prevent it? Practical implications – The scenarios illuminate the choices that need to be explored now to better anticipate and react to the challenges of the future. Originality/value – By selecting just two ranges of conditions–opportunity and participation–the author is able to imagine futures that have elements of utopia and dystopia.