What shapes voter expectations of Muslim politicians’ views on homosexuality: stereotyping or projection?

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Political party gatekeepers of candidate lists fear that voters stereotype Muslim politicians as homophobic. But do voters really do this? Building on the literatures on political psychology, political inclusion, homonationalism and populism, I juxtapose stereotyping and projection as two distinct mechanisms that shape voter expectations. I asked 3056 respondents in France, Germany, and the Netherlands what they expect of Muslim and non-religious politicians through conjoint experiments. I found that voters with lukewarm attitudes towards homosexuality tend to stereotype Muslim politicians as homophobic, while voters with strong positive or negative attitudes towards homosexuality tend to project their own opinions onto politicians, be they Muslim or non-religious. Voters who are the most in favor of same-sex adoption also feel the most similar to Muslims and their perceived similarity predicts expectations of Muslim politicians. These findings cast doubt on the dilemmas party gatekeepers struggle with to include Muslim politicians on electoral lists.