Abstract
This paper reports some experiments on probabilistic reasoning designed to investigate the impact of the probabilistic problem presentation format (verbal-numerical and graphical-pictorial) on subjects’ confidence in the correctness of their performance, other than the calibration between confidence and accuracy. To understand the potential effect of the format, these dimensions were assessed by monitoring contextual and individual variables: time pressure, numerical and visuospatial abilities, statistical anxiety and attitudes towards statistics. The participants included 257 Psychology students without statistical knowledge, recruited from Italian and Spanish universities, who fulfilled self-report validated measures. The students expressed their retrospective judgments of confidence item-by-item in relation to each probabilistic problem. This approach enabled the computation of two measures of calibration (the Bias Index - the Confidence-Judgment Accuracy Quotient). The results indicated that the problem presentation format did not exert a significant main effect on confidence, with the exception of when the interaction between the format and one subscale of the attitudes towards the statistics test was considered. The Bias Index, however, was significantly related to the interaction between format and time pressure. The study offers a point of reflection in relation to the potential effect exerted by the problem format and time constraint in calibration.
Highlights
Performance in Probabilistic ReasoningProbabilistic reasoning is recognized as an essential tool in daily life and the educational lifetime
This paper reports some experiments on probabilistic reasoning designed to investigate the impact of the probabilistic problem presentation format on subjects’ confidence in the correctness of their performance, other than the calibration between confidence and accuracy
We identified a positive and significant correlation between the Bias Index computed for the N and G formats (r= .598, p
Summary
Probabilistic reasoning is recognized as an essential tool in daily life and the educational lifetime. The study of probabilistic problem solving is considered useful to inquire into the relationships between cognitive processes and individual differences, referring to attitudes, abilities and task features. Among the other measures of calibration, there are indices of the relative accuracy, which assess the consistency of confidence and performance across a set of tasks In this regard, the Confidence-Judgment Accuracy Quotient (CAQ Index) (refer to Formula 2 in the Method section) assesses the individual’s ability to distinguish between confidence for the correct items and the confidence for the incorrect items (Boekaerts & Rozendaal, 2010; Jackson & Kleitman, 2013; Schraw, 2009; Shaughnessy, 1979). Independent (an individual could have a discrete absolute accuracy and a low relative accuracy; on the other hand, it is possible to observe the opposite) (Dunlosky & Thiede, 2013; Schraw, 2009)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary 
Published Version (
Free)
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: EURASIA Journal of Mathematics, Science and Technology Education
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
