What Risks Remain: Maritime Activity and the New Calculus of Risk in the North American Arctic

Abstract

Conditions in the Arctic are changing rapidly and maritime activity has risen sharply in recent years. Although ice-free periods within the Northwest Passage could eventually hold great promise for shortening shipping routes between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, the area remains hazardous for the time being. Weather remains challenging; ice dynamics remain poorly understood; dense, multi-year pack ice drifts into potential sea-lanes; first-responder capacity is low; and information useful to mariners is comparatively scarce. The uptick in maritime activity has been met with calls for a policy response to mitigate risk to human life, livelihoods, and the environment. This paper uses the literature of systems-risk assessment to consider the best course of action under uncertainty. With different elements of risk reduction falling to different policy agents, this paper explores the roles that different entities can play. Ultimately this paper concludes that characterizing the area as experiencing an “Arctic Gold Rush” is inappropriate, at least in the short term. Extractive resource companies have all but abandoned hopes for drilling anytime soon, and shipping companies rely more on reliability than the shortest distance between two points when route planning. With development interest faltering for the time being, this paper ultimately concludes that the best policy is one of investment in information. Rather than aggressive new regulatory interventions and expensive enhancements of physical infrastructure, for now at least the focus should be on research and communications. Better maritime communications technology, remote sensing, and physical science hold great promise and respond to an immediate need.