Arctic Shipping Routes

Abstract

Fast-receding summer sea ice in the Arctic has been documented and making the headlines since 2007. The phenomenon, underlined by scientists and the media since about the turn of the century, has triggered speculation about the opening of much shorter sea routes linking Europe via the eastern North American coast to Asia. The prospect of growing shipping traffic in Arctic waters, especially through the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic archipelago, or through the northeast passage north of Russia, has fuelled rhetoric on the status of these Arctic routes and controversy over the pace of such shipping growth. Few analysts question the common belief that it is only a matter of time before new sea lanes will be operational in the Arctic. This prospect is at the very heart of the ongoing debate on security in the Canadian Arctic, for it raises the issue of control of such navigation, and therefore of Canadian sovereignty over the Northwest Passage and the Canadian Arctic waters. It is this debate over control of navigation, often depicted as something bound to experience out-of-hand growth, that triggered the house of commons to vote in favour of a highly debatable resolution in December 2009, renaming the Northwest Passage the Canadian Northwest Passage, a move unlikely to attract any sympathy elsewhere in the world.But how much truth is there in the widely accepted notion that melting sea ice, opening up Arctic channels in the summer, will lead to greatly increased sea traffic in the region? Shorter distances seem to be the main factor considered by commentators, but shipping companies take many other questions into account before their managers decide to develop Arctic shipping. Indeed, shipping companies are in no rush to develop what they perceive to be a risky and not necessarily profitable route.FACTS: ARCTIC SEA ICE IS RECEDING IN THE SUMMERThe year 2007 saw a record low in the extent of summer sea ice, and the data show a trend towards an accelerated decline of the ice. Five years ago, climatologists talked about a possible ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer by the year 2100, but models now suggest that this could happen as early as 2015.1 Ever since Arctic- wide data for the extent of sea ice were computed in 1979, a general declining trend has been observed. To be sure, there is an inter-annual variability and it is difficult from year to year to predict the extent of the ice the following year, but the general trend definitely points towards an accelerating decline.Regression trends for shorter periods follow a steeper slope as time goes by, indicating that the pace of melting has accelerated over the past years. This means that the ice is melting faster and faster, with the prospect of ice-free summers as early as 2015 in some models, underlining the real possibility of little ice remaining in the summertime.This receding sea ice opens up channels that were long sought by Europeans to reach Asia, across the fabled northwest or northeast passages. The Northwest Passage is generally understood as the sea stretch from Lancaster Sound to the Bering Strait, although many authors limit its scope to the Canadian archipelago. The northeast passage - also called the northern sea route by Russia - follows the Siberian Arctic coast and crosses Russian Arctic straits between the mainland and Russian Arctic archipelagos: Novaya Zemlya, Sevemaya Zemlya, the New Siberian Islands, and Wrangel Island. There is a difference here between the two passages: the Northwest Passage rests almost entirely in Canadian-claimed internal waters if it is defined as extending from Baffin Bay to the Beaufort Sea, whereas the northeast passage merely skips across Russian straits and thus Russian-claimed internal waters, but for the most part lies outside Russian territorial waters, except in a few places. The route lies rather in the Russian exclusive economic zone, which is not insignificant, since Russian regulations on shipping along the northern sea route, based upon article 234 of the UN law of the sea, oblige ships to respect Russian regulations within Russia's economic zone, particularly with regard to mandatory piloting and icebreaker escort. …