What is the mechanism by which suicide attempts predispose to later suicide attempts? A mathematical model.

Abstract

A state dependence model of serial behavior suggests that each occurrence increases the subsequent likelihood of that behavior being repeated. A heterogeneity model, by contrast, suggests that the likelihood of a behavior occurring is predetermined, and uninfluenced by intervening occurrences. We have applied the random-effects probit model of Gibbons and Bock (1987) to examine the fit of the state dependence and heterogeneity models to longitudinal data on suicide attempts by 928 patients with affective disorder. Heterogeneity but not state dependence was required to model these data. The findings suggest that when considering patients with moderate to severe major affective disorder, the clinician should not interpret the absence of any recent suicide attempts to mean that the patient is at relatively low risk for attempting suicide in the future. An implication of the heterogeneity model is that suicide attempts made many years ago may have equal value to recent attempts when estimating an individual's "predisposition" to nonlethal attempts in the future.