What is the long-term demand for liquid hydrocarbon fuels and feedstocks?

Abstract

Liquid hydrocarbons made from crude oil serve many functions: (1) a dense, easy-to-store, easy-to-transport energy source, (2) a method for daily-to-seasonal energy storage, (3) a chemical feedstock, (4) a chemical reducing agent and (5) a method to enhance high-temperature heat transfer in many furnaces and industrial processes. Liquid hydrocarbons can be produced and used without increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels if made from non-fossil feedstocks such as carbon dioxide or biomass. Understanding future liquid hydrocarbon demand is the starting point in assessing the viability of such options. Our assessment is that U.S. demand for liquid hydrocarbons is unlikely to go below the equivalent of 10 million barrels per day of crude oil but could be as high as 20 million barrels per day. The costs to replace liquid hydrocarbons increases rapidly at lower liquid hydrocarbon consumption rates. Hydrocarbon biofuels from cellulosic feedstocks can meet such demands if produced with large external inputs of heat and hydrogen. Options based on more limited feedstocks (starches, plant oils, sugars, etc.) can’t meet such demands.