What Is the Impact of Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics on the Pre-delta COVID-19 Epidemic Size in the United States?

Abstract

It is still uncertain how the epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 in its early phase and subsequent waves contributed to the pre-delta epidemic size in the United States. We identified the early and subsequent characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic and the correlation between these characteristics and the pre-delta epidemic size. Most (96.1% (49/51)) of the states entered a fast-growing phase before the accumulative number of cases reached (30). The days required for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 was 5.6 (5.1–6.1) days. As of 31 March 2021, all 51 states experienced at least 2 waves of COVID-19 outbreaks, 23.5% (12/51) experienced 3 waves, and 15.7% (8/51) experienced 4 waves, the epidemic size of COVID-19 was 19,275–3,669,048 cases across the states. The pre-delta epidemic size was significantly correlated with the duration from 30 to 100 cases (p = 0.003, r = −0.405), the growth rate of the fast-growing phase (p = 0.012, r = 0.351), and the peak cases in the subsequent waves (K1 (p < 0.001, r = 0.794), K2 (p < 0.001, r = 0.595), K3 (p < 0.001, r = 0.977), and K4 (p = 0.002, r = 0.905)). We observed that both early and subsequent epidemic characteristics contribute to the pre-delta epidemic size of COVID-19. This identification is important to the prediction of the emerging viral infectious diseases in the primary stage.