Comparisons between the Neighboring States of Amazonas and Pará in Brazil in the Second Wave of COVID-19 Outbreak and a Possible Role of Early Ambulatory Treatment.

Francisco G Emmerich

doi:10.3390/ijerph18073371

Abstract

Brazil and many countries are now experiencing a second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. The objective of this study is to compare results with statistical samples involving millions of people in the two largest neighboring states in Brazil, Amazonas and Pará, which in the first wave were similar but now show significant different results in combating COVID-19. During the first wave, in May 2020, the maximums of the 7-day average daily deaths per population of Amazonas and Pará were similar: 15.7 and 17.1 deaths per day per million people, respectively, which means a ratio 15.7/17.1 = 0.92 ≈ 1. Now, in the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak, Amazonas has entered a serious situation; meanwhile, Pará has presented a much smaller growth in the mortality. The accumulated mortality per population from 11 November 2020 to 15 March 2021 of Amazonas and Pará are 1645 and 296 deaths per million people, respectively. As 1645/296 = 5.55, Amazonas is presenting an accumulated mortality per population more than five times that of Pará. Future in-depth research can provide a grounded answer to explain this significant difference, nonetheless the explicit support of the Pará state government, after 21 May 2020, to early ambulatory treatment may have played some role on this result.

Highlights

The COVID-19 pandemic has been impacting the world since the beginning of2020 [1,2] and two waves of COVID-19 outbreak [3] have hit many countries
The daily deaths of COVID-19 in Brazil and other statistical data of the pandemic are provided by the municipalities and the states, and compiled by the Ministry of Health, which provides a spreadsheet in a CSV format available on its website
The period of highest mortality of the first wave occurred between the end of May 2020 and the beginning of September 2020, with the maximum of the 7-day average daily deaths occurring on 25 July 2020: 1097 deaths per day, which corresponds to 5.1 deaths per day per million people

Summary

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has been impacting the world since the beginning of2020 [1,2] and two waves of COVID-19 outbreak [3] have hit many countries. Studies with 10,000–20,000 patients or more are important, the scope and the objective of this research note is not to discuss them but to work on comparisons of statistical samples involving millions of people in two states of a country in the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak. This country is Brazil, which occupies a vast area (about half of South America) with a relatively large population, which corresponds to about 45% of the population of South America, 30% of Europe and

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Conclusion