What Explains Global Exchange Rate Movements during the Financial Crisis

Abstract

A striking and unexpected feature of the financial crisis has been the sharp appreciation of the US dollar against virtually all currencies globally. The paper finds that negative US-specific macroeconomic shocks during the crisis have triggered a significant strengthening of the US dollar, rather than a weakening. Macroeconomic fundamentals and financial exposure of individual countries are found to have played a key role in the transmission process of US shocks: in particular countries with low FX reserves, weak current account positions and high direct financial exposure vis-a-vis the United States have experienced substantially larger currency depreciations during the crisis overall, and to US shocks in particular. JEL Classification: F31, F4, G1