Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves: A Comparative Study

Abstract

The United States (US) dollar has been the principal currency used for reserve purposes by central banks worldwide for many years. However, uncertainties about the future strength of the US economy and the exchange value of the US dollar have led to pressure for a number of central banks particularly in developing countries, to consider shifting their US dollar reserve holdings to other reserve currencies. Since its creation in 1999 the euro has represented a serious alternative to the US dollar. Some authors have forecast that the euro is likely to replace the US dollar as the principal reserve currency in the near future. If a major portfolio re-balancing away from the US dollar occurs, there may be serious implications for both the US and the global economy. A deeper understanding of how central banks manage currency composition of foreign exchange (FX) reserves needs to be established in order to evaluate the likely developments in this area. The transaction theory and the mean-variance theory have served as the main conceptual frameworks for studies in this field. They have been useful in identifying factors which may theoretically affect FX reserve holdings. However, empirical studies of the two theories have been very limited in both number and in the range and number of countries covered. This study contributes to research in this area by presenting a comprehensive empirical investigation of the determinants of the currency composition of FX reserves, based on the frameworks proposed by the transaction theory, as well as that proposed by the meanvariance theory. The study covers a wider range of countries than previous estimations to date, including a detailed comparative examination of the management of FX reserves for a single country, Australia. It also uses more recent data than any previous studies, which allows a more complete analysis of the impact of the euro since its introduction in 1999...