What drives embodied metal consumption in China's imports and exports

Abstract

The expansion of trade has not only increased imports and exports, but also increased metal consumption embodied in them. Based on China's input-output tables from 1997 to 2017, this study uses structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to analyze China's consumption of embodied metal in imports and exports in each sector, and identify their driving factors at the holistic, industrial and sub-sectoral levels. The results show the following. 1) China is a net importer of embodied ferrous metal and a net exporter of embodied non-ferrous metal, and the change of the embodied metal consumption showed an inverted U-shape. 2) The scale effect was the main driver for these increases; the technology and intensity effect were the primary inhibitor of embodied ferrous and non-ferrous metal consumption, respectively; the structure effect increased metal consumption embodied in imports more than in export. 3) Industry contributed most to the consumption, and the factors were heterogeneous in different industrial sub-sectors: the inhibitory effect of technology was more obvious in imports than in exports, and the structure effect promoted more embodied ferrous metal consumption import and more non-ferrous metal consumption export; the intensity effect was promoter before 2007 while its inhibitory effect became more obvious after 2012.4) China's technology level and metal utilization efficiency were still lower than those in foreign countries; the effect of technology to reduce embodied metal consumption was small but had potential impact. Based on these results, relative policy recommendations are proposed.