Drivers of metal consumption in China: An input-output structural decomposition analysis

Abstract

The rapid growth of metal consumption is not only the result of global processes of industrialization and urbanization but also the result of multiple drivers. Based on China's input-output tables from 1997 to 2015, this article discussed the decoupling states between metal consumption and economic growth among sectors, and then adopted structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method to analyze drivers of China's metal consumption at the national level, industrial level (agriculture, industry, construction and service industries) and sub-sectors of industry level. The results show the following: (1) from 1997 to 2015, China's total metal consumption increased by 3889.35 million tons, and the decoupling state of economic development and metal consumption presented expansive negative decoupling; thus, China's high-speed economic growth has come at the expense of high-intensity metal consumption, especially in industry; (2) capital formation is the main driver of metal consumption, increasing metal consumption by 1374.89 million tons and accounting for 35.27% of the contribution, followed by metal consumption intensity, export expansion, consumption expansion, Leontief effect and import substitution effect; (3) the metal consumption intensity and Leontief effect are potential factors for improving the efficiency of metal use and reducing metal consumption; (4) various drivers hold discrepant influence on different sectors. Based on these results, related policy recommendations are also discussed.