Abstract
A future bioeconomy pursues the transformation of the resource base from fossil to renewable materials in an effort to develop a holistic, sustainable production and provision system. While the significance of this change in the German context is not yet entirely explored, scenarios analysing possible pathways could support the understanding of these changes and their systemic implications. Bioeconomy in detail depends on respective framework conditions, such as the availability of biomass or technological research priorities. Thus, for scenario creation, transferable methods for flexible input settings are needed. Addressing this issue, the study identifies relevant bioeconomy scenario drivers. With the theoretical approach of narrative analysis, 92 statements of the German National Bioeconomy Strategy 2020 have been evaluated and 21 international studies in a STEEPLE framework were assessed. For a future German bioeconomy 19 important drivers could be determined and specific aspects of the resource base, production processes and products as well as overarching issues were exploratively characterised on a quantitative and qualitative basis. The developed method demonstrate an approach for a transparent scenario driver identification that is applicable to other strategy papers. The results illustrate a possible future German bioeconomy that is resource- and technology-driven by following a value-based objective, and which is supplied by biogenic residue and side product feedstocks. As such, the bioeconomy scenario drivers can be used as a starting point for future research like scenario development or modelling of a future German bioeconomy.
Highlights
Emerging global challenges such as climate change and degradation of ecosystems require the adaptation of various production sectors in an effort to sustain provision systems to satisfy societal demands [1,2]
A growth and value-based objective is in the foreground, especially for products and processes based on non-food biomasses, e.g., residue and side products
We provided an extensive overview of the current status and potentials of the bioeconomy and examine specific aspects of a possible future bioeconomy in Germany
Summary
Emerging global challenges such as climate change and degradation of ecosystems require the adaptation of various production sectors in an effort to sustain provision systems to satisfy societal demands [1,2]. Several policy developments related to the bioeconomy at the EU level can be mentioned here. Frameworks such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) [4] and European Green Deal with a time horizon of. Several national bioeconomy strategies [7] illustrate that there is one specific bioeconomy, but many different ones [2], depending on the respective framework conditions, such as the availability of biomass or technological research priorities, for example [8].
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