What does routine healthcare data tell us about the diagnostic pathway for older people with heart failure in Wales: under-testing, problems with access, or poor coding?

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Abstract Background United Kingdom guidelines (NICE, NG106) for suspected chronic heart failure (HF) recommend that NT pro-BNP is performed as a first-line test. The result is also used to triage individuals; when NT pro-BNP is <400ng/L, a diagnosis of HF is less likely, echocardiography (echo) and specialist assessment should be performed within 6 weeks when the result is 400-2000ng/L, and within 2 weeks if >2000ng/L. How accurately this guidance is followed in clinical practice in Wales is not known. Purpose To examine how the current diagnostic pathway is recorded in routinely-collected electronic health record (EHR) data for older people in Wales with a diagnosis of heart failure. Methods We conducted a retrospective, population-level, observational study using linked anonymised EHR data in Wales (2015-22). We included patients aged 65y+ with a HF diagnosis in their primary or secondary care records and with a minimum of 12m pre and post-diagnosis data (for assessment of diagnostic pathway). We looked back from the point of HF diagnosis for codes associated with prior cardiovascular conditions (any time prior), symptoms (within 3 years), and key diagnostic tests (within 90 days). Results The final cohort comprised 51,020 individuals 65y and over with a diagnosis of heart failure between 2015-2022. Incidence and prevalence of heart failure increased across the study period (1.4-1.5% and 8.5-9.1% respectively). HF diagnosis was first evident in secondary care records in 54.9%, in primary care 36.3%, and in both data sources on the same day in 8.8%. Preceding cardiovascular diagnoses included hypertension (69.5%), atrial fibrillation (36.7%), myocardial infarction (30.5%), coronary artery disease (25.7%), and valve disease (17.7%). The most common recorded symptoms preceding diagnosis were breathlessness (41.4%), ankle oedema (9.8%), and fatigue (8.8%). Searched for symptoms were not recorded in 43.8%. In the 90 days preceding the diagnosis, 7-30% had recorded NT pro-BNP with the number of tests increasing throughout the study period (Figure 1). In the 90 days prior to HF diagnosis, 28-31% had an echo recorded. NT pro-BNP was >2000ng/L in 51.8%, 400-2000ng/L in 38.6% and <400ng/L in 9.6%. Conclusions In Wales, a greater number of individuals with heart failure appear to be diagnosed during hospital admission, compared with primary care. Many individuals with a code for HF in their records, do not have recorded objective evidence of cardiac dysfunction. The proportion of first-line and definitive tests appears low. It is unclear whether this is because of under-referral, difficulty accessing tests in primary care, or inaccurate coding of test referrals and results. These results are important in evaluating health service delivery and workforce planning.