Abstract
The ‘BP Energy Outlook 2030’ is the first of the company’s forward-looking analyses to be published. BP’s base case—or most likely projection—points to primary energy use growing by nearly 40% in the next 20 years. Ninety-three per cent of this growth is expected to come from non-OECD (organisation of economic co-operation and development) countries. Non-OECD countries are seen to rapidly increase their share of overall energy demand from just over half presently to two-thirds. Over the same period, energy intensity—a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output—is set to improve globally. This will be led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies identified in these projections. According to the ‘BP Energy Outlook’, diversification of energy sources will increase. For the first time, non-fossil fuels (nuclear, as well as hydroelectricity and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth. From 2010–2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is forecast to increase from 5% to 18%. Natural gas is projected to be the fastest-growing fossil fuel, while coal and oil are likely to lose market share as fossil fuels in general experience lower growth rates. Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its 1990 level. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.
Published Version
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