Abstract
Foresight involves future-oriented awareness and planning, enabling businesses to respond quickly and effectively to future market threats and opportunities. However, knowledge about corporate foresight practices and outcomes is limited. Corporations interested in implementing foresight are unable to identify best practices or anticipate results from foresight activities. Therefore, this qualitative, multiple holistic case study was a foundational investigation of foresight phenomenon within contemporary American corporations. A convenience sample of 14 foresight practitioners represented American corporations or American divisions of European corporations actively using foresight. Interview queries aligned with the guiding research questions explored corporate foresight methods and outcomes. Interview data were coded and synthesized for thematic report of common and unique responses; this documented practices used in and outcomes derived from corporate foresight. Foresight practitioners revealed specific actions taken by corporations in response to foresight outcomes. Actions included organizational changes, introduction of new products or product variations, new research and development projects, and inclusion of foresight project outputs such as reports, presentations, recommendations, in departmental plans. The findings suggested standardization of terminology for professional discourse, education, and practice, would benefit practitioners and corporations. Four tenets emerging from the themes were short-termism, corporate culture, implementation, and feedback loop; these tenets should guide future use of foresight in the context of for-profit corporations.
Highlights
In most areas of business, highly accurate, long-range forecasting is not possible because the level of uncertainty over time is greater than the knowledge available to managers [23]
Triangulation took place by comparing and contrasting existing case study documentation from databases dedicated to foresight projects such as the European Foresight Monitoring Network [13] with the data derived from interviews
27 Multi-client trend tracking report sent to client subscribers; consumer assessment for corporate strategy team; includes synthesis of trends and opportunities; how the company wants customers to see them in the future; assess future market opportunities; worldwide lifestyles and technology reports; recommendations reviewed with senior leadership to prioritize efforts towards goals
Summary
In most areas of business, highly accurate, long-range forecasting is not possible because the level of uncertainty over time is greater than the knowledge available to managers [23]. It is common for contemporary businesses to rely on accounting data, competitor sales figures, information from financial statements, market share figures, and consumer research in order to plan for near-term supply needs, production schedules, or staffing While these data are accurate, authorities in business competitive analysis caution that the past is an unreliable predictor of the future [15]. Foresight efforts take place behind closed doors in the context of for-profit corporations [10] These activities can directly influence corporate innovation, marketing, and strategic planning which company management rarely reveals to competitors [24]. The purpose of this qualitative research was to identify foresight methods that foresight practitioners use and to describe the results attainted by for-profit corporations. Triangulation took place by comparing and contrasting existing case study documentation from databases dedicated to foresight projects such as the European Foresight Monitoring Network [13] with the data derived from interviews
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