Abstract
The effect of wind changes on aircraft routing has been identified as a potential impact of climate change on aviation. This is of particular interest for trans-Atlantic flights, where the pattern of upper-level winds over the north Atlantic, in particular the location and strength of the jet stream, strongly influences both the optimal flight route and the resulting flight time. Eastbound trans-Atlantic flights can often be routed to take advantage of the strong tailwinds in the jet stream, shortening the flight time and reducing fuel consumption. Here we investigate the impact of climate change on upper-level winds over the north Atlantic, using five climate model simulations from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, considering a high greenhouse-gas emissions scenario. The impact on aircraft routing and flight time are quantified using flight routing software. The climate models agree that the jet stream will be on average located 1° further north, with a small increase in mean strength, by 2100. However daily variations in both its location and speed are significantly larger than the magnitude of any changes due to climate change. The net effect of climate change on trans-Atlantic aircraft routes is small; in the annual-mean eastbound routes are 1min shorter and located further north and westbound routes are 1min longer and more spread out around the great circle. There are, however, seasonal variations; route time changes are larger in winter, while in summer both eastbound and westbound route times increase.
Highlights
It is well-known that greenhouse gas emissions from transport contribute to climate change (e.g. Fuglestvedt et al, 2008; Lee et al, 2009); climate change itself could have potentially large impacts on the transport sector
Changes to upper-level winds, in particular the jet streams, have been identified as one possible impact of climate change that could have an effect on aviation, through aircraft routing (Eurocontrol, 2009, 2013; Love et al, 2010)
This is of particular interest for trans-Atlantic flights, since their location and duration are strongly influenced by the strength and location of the jet stream (Irvine et al, 2013)
Summary
It is well-known that greenhouse gas emissions from transport contribute to climate change (e.g. Fuglestvedt et al, 2008; Lee et al, 2009); climate change itself could have potentially large impacts on the transport sector. Fuglestvedt et al, 2008; Lee et al, 2009); climate change itself could have potentially large impacts on the transport sector. The aviation sector in particular may be affected by changes to temperature, winds and extremes in weather (see reviews by Koetse and Rietveld (2009) and Peterson et al (2008)), since its operations both on the ground and in the air are heavily weather dependent. The focus of this paper is on changes to upper-level winds, the jet stream, caused by climate change. Changes to the position and strength of the jet stream could affect both the incidence of wind storms and the variability in wind direction at airports, both of which influence runway
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