West oriented in the East-oriented Donbas: a political stratigraphy of geopolitical identity in Luhansk, Ukraine

Abstract

Building on data from a survey (n = 4000) conducted in the eastern Ukrainian city of Luhansk in late 2013, this article explores the link between national identity and foreign policy preferences in the Donbas, suggesting that they are increasingly conflated in distinct geopolitical identities. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression are used to compare the characteristics of pro-West and uncertain individuals with those of the pro-Russian/Soviet individuals, with preferences on North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European Union (EU) accession underlying this distinction. The results show that geopolitical identities in Luhansk have a complex political stratigraphy that includes demographic, socioeconomic, cultural, and attitudinal components. The pro-West constituency is younger, not Russian but often including members of other ethnic groups, well educated, more tolerant toward sexual minorities, generally more satisfied with life, and it also speaks better English. Conversely, those with pro-Russia/Soviet geopolitical identities are older, Russian, low educated, less fluent in English, intolerant, and unsatisfied with their lives. Uncertainty is more randomly distributed among social groups, indicating different underlying causes related to the source of the respondents’ uncertainty.