WebMRT: An online tool to predict summertime mean radiant temperature using machine learning

Abstract

Mean Radiant Temperature (Tmrt) is the most critical atmospheric variable influencing outdoor human thermal exposure and comfort in hot, dry environments. However, accurately quantifying Tmrt requires time-consuming field measurements with expensive equipment or complex, resource-intensive computations. We introduce WebMRT, an online tool to predict Tmrt using a data-driven approach. It features an intuitive interface using air temperature, shading status, and built environment features as predictors of Tmrt for a user-selected summer day, time, and location. Utilizing a tree-based ensemble model, WebMRT is trained on state-of-the-art human-biometeorological data collected by MaRTy using LightGBM after evaluating its performance against several candidate machine learning regressors. Feature engineering was applied to the day and time input, and two additional temporal features were derived: ‘Solar Altitude’ and ‘Minutes-from-Sunrise’. These inputs are integrated into the user interface, emphasizing simplicity and easy access for users at the frontend. After training the regressor on MaRTy datasets and employing k-fold cross-validation with ten folds, the model demonstrated strong predictive power (R2=0.92) with acceptable error (RMSE=3.43, MAPE=5.33) and bias (MBE=0.20). WebMRT also features optional fisheye photo uploads, processed using transfer learning techniques for image segmentation, further enhancing the tool's predictive accuracy, user experience, and applications towards climate action decision-making processes.