Web-Based Tool for the Development of Intensity Duration Frequency Curves under Changing Climate at Gauged and Ungauged Locations

Andre Schardong,Abhishek Gaur,Dan Sandink,Slobodan P Simonovic

doi:10.3390/w12051243

Andre Schardong, Abhishek Gaur + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051243

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Journal: Water	Publication Date: Apr 27, 2020
Citations: 26	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: National Research Council Canada, Western University

Abstract

Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are among the most essential datasets used in water resources management across the globe. Traditionally, they are derived from observations of historical rainfall, under the assumption of stationarity. Change of climatic conditions makes use of historical data for development of IDFs for the future unreliable, and in some cases, may lead to underestimated infrastructure designs. The IDF_CC tool is designed to assist water professionals and engineers in producing IDF estimates under changing climatic conditions. The latest version of the tool (Version 4) provides updated IDF curve estimates for gauged locations (rainfall monitoring stations) and ungauged sites using a new gridded dataset of IDF curves for the land mass of Canada. The tool has been developed using web-based technologies and takes the form of a decision support system (DSS). The main modifications and improvements between version 1 and the latest version of the IDF_CC tool include: (i) introduction of the Generalized Extreme value (GEV) distribution; (ii) updated equidistant matching algorithm (QM); (iii) gridded IDF curves dataset for ungauged location and (iv) updated Climate Models.

Highlights

Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves describe the relationship between rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and the probability of exceedance given by the return period and are used for many water management applications, including the design of major and minor stormwater management systems, sanitary sewers, detention ponds, culverts, bridges, dams, pumping stations, and roads, among others [1]
The results show a close agreement with the dataset of climate models in the IDF_CC tool
The lack of relevant climate change impact information at the watershed and municipal level has been noted as a challenge that is difficult to overcome in many institutions responsible for decision making, including those with very high adaptive capacity

Summary

Introduction

Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves describe the relationship between rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and the probability of exceedance given by the return period (frequency) and are used for many water management applications, including the design of major and minor stormwater management systems, sanitary sewers, detention ponds, culverts, bridges, dams, pumping stations, and roads, among others [1]. In Canada, we are witnessing a growing demand for robust methods and tools to assist rapid evaluation of the future extreme rainfall events and their impact on IDF curves. Understanding the full magnitude of the deficit the systems are subject to requires information on the maximum inputs (extreme rainfall events) with which drainage works must contend; and (iii) climate change will likely result in an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in most regions in the future [2]. One of the climate change impacts is intensification of the global hydrologic cycle, causing increased intensity of wet and dry extremes and resulting floods and droughts [3].

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