Development of intensity-duration-frequency curves for Sri Lanka using satellite-based precipitation products – Understanding environmental conditions and concerns

Abstract

Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves can be identified as a major role in the planning of urban drainage infrastructure. Sri Lanka, which is an island surrounded by the Indian Ocean, is frequently exposed to various climatic alterations. Sri Lanka has specific region-wise IDF relationships for the entire country, however, these IDF curves were developed more than 30 years ago. Many in-situ rainfall observations in Sri Lanka have insufficient record lengths and the absence of finer time scale records (e.g. 15 min, hourly) leading to unreliable IDF curve developments. Given this importance, the present paper demonstrates the application of Satellite-based Precipitation Product (SbPP) daily rainfall in developing IDF curves for Sri Lanka. Rainfall satellite estimates derived from Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B42), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks – Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) have been used to evaluate the ability of application of remote sensing data to develop IDF curves for Sri Lanka against rain gauge (RG) data. Our study breaks new ground by generating 50 IDF curves tailored to specific locations covering the whole county Sri Lanka, using daily rainfall data from RGs and three SbPPs during the period between 1990 and 2019. This marks a significant departure from the conventional approach, offering a more granular understanding of rainfall patterns in the country. By providing IDF curves for individual locations, our research presents a novel contribution to Sri Lanka's IDF history. At first, to evaluate the accuracy of SbPPs, statistical analysis was conducted using continuous and categorical evaluation indices. Second, IDF curves were developed and compared with the presently available IDF curves. Results showcased that IMERG outperformed all SbPPs, while PERSIANN-CDR showed dire performances. The IMERG and TRMM-3B42 products tend to overestimate light precipitation regions in high elevations and overestimate heavy rainfall in low elevations compared to rain gauge data. Rainfall intensities derived by rain gauge data depicted relative changes within ±30% for shorter durations and ±20% for longer durations while SbPPs showed beyond ±30% difference concerning the previously developed IDFs. It was apparent that these products have significant inaccuracies which cannot be neglected when utilizing them in developing IDF curves. This study will be beneficial in solving design problems associated with urban runoff control and disposal where knowing the rainfall intensities of different return periods with different durations is vital.