Weather variables and Japanese encephalitis in the metropolitan area of Jinan city, China

Abstract

To identify weather-related risk factors and their roles in Japanese encephalitis transmission and to provide policy implications for local health authorities and communities. Data on notified cases of Japanese encephalitis and weather variables over the period 1959-1979 were collected from Jinan city, a temperate city in China. Due to seasonality of the disease, the data analysis was restricted to five months from June to October each year. Spearman correlation analysis and time-series adjusted Poisson regression analysis were performed to quantify the relationship between weather and the number of cases. The Hockey Stick model was used to detect potential threshold temperatures. Monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures, monthly total rainfall and monthly mean relative humidity were positively correlated to monthly notification of Japanese encephalitis, while monthly mean air pressure was inversely correlated. Lag times varied from one to two months. All these weather variables were significant in the adjusted Poisson regression model. Thresholds of 25.2 degrees C for maximum temperature and 21.0 degrees C for minimum temperature were also detected. Weather variables could have affected the transmission of Japanese encephalitis in this urban area of China. Public health interventions should be developed at this stage to reduce future risks related to climate change.