Association of Weather and Anthropogenic Factors for Transmission of Japanese Encephalitis in an Endemic Area of India

Abstract

Weather and anthropogenic factors are important determinants for Japanese encephalitis (JE) transmission. During 2008-2010, an increasing trend of JE was observed in Dibrugarh district of Northeast India. The JE cases were found to be clustered between June to October in each year. Monthly minimum temperature and rainfall were significantly associated with JE transmission at 1 and 2months lagged. However, the relationship was more prominent at a lag of 1month than that of two. Regression analysis suggested that rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and relative humidity at 6:00h are significant predictors (P<0.05) of quarterly occurrence of JE cases. Additional anthropogenic risk factors including the conditions such as pig sty/cattle shed around and lower part of the houses and proximity of rice field to the dwelling houses (P<0.05) were also found to be predictors for JE occurrence. Meteorological and anthropogenic risk factors can be used to forecast JE outbreaks in Assam which in turn can help the local health authorities to protect communities in JE prone areas.