Weather risks in grain production

Abstract

Grain production depends primarily on weather conditions. The paper provides a comparative detailing of meteorological factors affecting the productivity of grain production in the world. The main global factors in the context of climate change that affect the world indicators of the productivity of grain production are natural and climatic conditions with the corresponding Rhesus (risk-extreme values): air temperature during the growing season of grain crops (abnormal heat/frosts); precipitation in the spring-summer period (drought/showers). Based on the analysis of the group of meteorological factors that affect the productivity of grain production, presented by the authors, we can conclude that there are factors of global warming, which leads to a change in productivity and has sharp reversals in the form of “recession/rise". Moreover, speaking about the further development of these agricultural systems, one can state the presence of uncertainty in factors, both objective and external (precipitation, temperature). In this case, by risk we mean the randomness and uncertainty of results in the agricultural sector of the grain-producing territories of the world, which is higher than in other areas of human life.