Abstract
Abstract Establishing cooperation in transboundary rivers is challenging especially with the weak or non-existent river basin institutions. A nexus-based approach is developed to explore cooperation opportunities in transboundary river basins while considering system operation and coordination under uncertain hydrologic river regimes. The proposed approach is applied to the Nile river basin with a special focus on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), assuming two possible governance positions: with or without cooperation. A cooperation mechanism is developed to allocate additional releases from the GERD when necessary, while a unilateral position assumes that the GERD is operated to maximize hydropower generation regardless of downstream users' needs. The GERD operation modes were analysed considering operation of downstream reservoirs and varying demands in Egypt. Results show that average basin-wide hydropower generation is likely to increase by about 547 GWh/year (1%) if cooperation is adopted when compared to the unilateral position. In Sudan, hydropower generation and water supply are expected to enhance in the unilateral position and would improve further with cooperation. Furthermore, elevated low flows by the GERD are likely to improve the WFE nexus outcomes in Egypt under full cooperation governance scenario with a small reduction in GERD hydropower generation (2,000 GWh/year (19%)).
Highlights
Rivers play important roles in human societies
This paper explores cooperation pathways in transboundary river basins using a nexus-based approach while considering reservoir system operation and coordination under variable hydrological conditions
We analyse the river flows at two different locations that will be affected by the considered operation modes of the upstream reservoir(s) and demand patterns in Egypt: (I) at El-Diem gauge station on the Blue Nile, and (II) at Dongola gauge station on the Main Nile
Summary
River basins have been and will continue to: (i) be at the core of regional economic activities and growth, (ii) shape human societies, and (iii) influence the geopolitical environment. Population growth, economic development and urbanization in riparian states are key drivers of increased demands for water, food and energy resources. In a shared river basin, competitions over the river resources are likely to cause disputes among the riparian countries. These disputes combined with other historical, cultural, legal and environmental factors can make transboundary rivers a source of cooperation or conflict
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