Abstract
Access to a reliable water supply is central for a well-functioning society. However, water supply systems are subject to a wide range of threats which may affect their ability to provide water to society. This paper presents a novel risk assessment approach that enables thorough analyses of economic losses and associated uncertainties under a range of water supply disruption scenarios. The purpose is to avoid sub-optimization when prioritizing between risk reduction measures, by integrating the full range of possible outcomes from low to high probability events. By combining risk analysis with cost-benefit analysis, additional information is provided on measures for leveraging investments in managing and reducing the risks. This enables the identification of the most economically profitable risk reduction alternatives and enables decision makers to build strategic capacity for operating in difficult and uncertain futures. The presented approach is exemplified on the island of Gotland, one of the most water scarce areas of Sweden.
Highlights
Water supply infrastructure systems are subject to a wide range of threats which may affect their ability to provide water to society
Frequency was generally used as a measurement of occurrence when the estimated time between events was greater than one time per year; otherwise the return period was used
The risk-based approach proposed in this paper can be used to evaluate uncertainties and provide information on frequencies and welfare losses of water supply disruptions
Summary
Water supply infrastructure systems are subject to a wide range of threats which may affect their ability to provide water to society. To deal with the uncertainties and the societal impacts that all these threats entail, risk assessment methods need to be integrated in water supply decision making [3,4]. Risk-based decision making uses the results of risk assessments to guide and inform decisions on risk reduction measures. It may, for example, involve comparing required resources for implementing potential risk reduction measures with potential benefits of estimated risk reduction. A framing based on risk provides for a better understanding of the severity, distribution and impacts of the full range of possible outcomes [6]
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