Water supply and food security: Alternative scenarios for the Indian Indo‐Gangetic River Basin1

Abstract

India is one of the world's largest countries in both size and population. The country is also very important in the world food market, accounting for 12% of global wheat production and 21% of global paddy production during 2000–03. Large‐scale irrigation development been at the heart of rapid increases in food production achieved in India over the last five decades. Today, more than half of India's cereal output is harvested on irrigated lands, and irrigated yields are more than double those of rainfed cereal yields. One of the most productive irrigation systems in India and the world is the Indo‐Gangetic Basin (IGB) and plains, which account for a third of India's cultivable area and about 60% of its irrigated area. While irrigation development and food production have expanded apace, increasing concerns have been raised about the sustainability of irrigated production systems in the IGB. This paper examines the likely future development for water and food in the IGB, based on an integrated water‐food modeling framework, IMPACT‐WATER. The impact of eliminating groundwater overdraft in the IGB and elsewhere on food supply and water usage is also examined.