Water Security Scenario Analysis: Methodology and A Case Study

Abstract

Water security concerns for developing and managing water resources in an equitable, efficient and integrated manner for human survival and well-being. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model for dynamic scenario analysis of urban water security strategies was set up based on the framework of Pressure-State-Response (PSR) in sustainable development theory, as well as the interactive and dynamic relationship among socio-economic and environmental system. As a case study, the SD scenario analysis was applied into the water security systems scenario analysis for Jurong city of South Jiangsu province in China, and the corresponding water security strategies for sustainable development of this city were proposed as well. The results show that the SD based scenario analysis method is effective and can serve as the guidance for various stakeholders concerned in modifying water security strategies to achieve urban sustainability.