Notice of Retraction: Water Security Scenario Analysis: Methodology and a Case Study in South China

Abstract

Water security has increasingly become a key issue concerning social, economic and life security of mankind at both global and local levels. In this paper, a System Dynamics model for dynamic scenario analysis of regional water security strategies is set up based on the framework of Pressure-State-Response (PSR) in sustainable development theory, as well as the interactive and dynamic relationship among socio-economic and environmental system. As a case study, SD scenario analysis is applied into the water security systems scenario analysis for North River basin in Guangdong Province in China, and the corresponding water security strategies for sustainable development of this city were proposed as well. The results show that the SD based scenario analysis method is effective and therefore can be used as the guidance for various stakeholders concerned in modifying water security strategies to achieve regional sustainability.