Water-power scenarios to 2033: A mixed model

Abstract

The balancing of energy and water supply-demand involves a challenging issue. Policymakers at both global and national levels are striving to ensure the security of energy and water supply while supporting economic growth. This study investigates the nexus between water and power and explores potential future directions at global and national perspectives. It considers the case of Iran, as a resource-rich developing economy, to assess real-world influences and potential outcomes. The research proposes an enhanced layered uncertainties scenario synthesizing model to develop and evaluate plausible futures within a 10-year planning horizon (2033). The model employs a novel data-gathering procedure based on experts’ inputs and intuitionistic fuzzy averaging to facilitate reliable judgments in a highly uncertain environment. Findings reveal that, from the global perspective, an energy transition is likely to gain momentum during the next decade, but the water intensity (quantity of water supplied per unit of GDP) is expected to gradually decrease. Providing reliable and secured electricity and water supply, especially for the less developed economies is likely to become an increasingly challenging matter, hindering their potential financial and technological development. The period to 2033 in Iran is expected to be shaped by political issues and international sanctions, making them the most significant future drivers. These factors are likely to have a substantial impact on Iran's decisions regarding energy and water development, as they may affect foreign investment, the cost of money, and water competition diplomacy.