Abstract
The potential impact of glacier recession on river discharge from the Hunza river basin was estimated as an indicator for downstream changes in the Indus river system. The J2000 model was used to analyze the water balance in the basin and simulate the contribution of snow and ice melt to total discharge at present and under three scenarios of glacier recession. Precipitation was corrected using virtual weather stations created at a higher elevation and a precipitation gradient. Snowmelt from the whole basin contributed, on average, 45% of the total river discharge during the modeling period and 47% of the ice melt from the glacier area. Total ice melt declined by 55%, 81%, and 96% under scenarios of glacier recession to 4000, 4500, and 5000 masl, respectively. The contribution of ice melt to river discharge decreased to 29%, 14%, and 4% under the three scenarios, while total discharge from the Hunza river decreased by 28%, 40%, and 46%. The results suggest that glacier recession in the Hunza river basin could have serious implications for downstream water availability. Understanding melt contribution in the basin based on ongoing and projected future climatic change can play a crucial role in future water resource management.
Highlights
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) has some of the largest glaciers in the world [1]
Discharge increased very slightly in some months during the accumulation period (December, January, February, and March) because, as glaciers recede, the snow falls on bare land, infiltrates after melt, and contributes to river discharge through interflow and groundwater
The simulated monthly average ice melt runoff during the modeling period was used as the Thefor key of the analysis of theTotal waterice balance in the Hunza basin using the J2000 baseline thefindings glacier shrinkage scenarios
Summary
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) has some of the largest glaciers in the world [1]. They act as natural water storage—reservoirs that store precipitation in the winter in the form of snow and release it in the summer as meltwater [2]. Recent changes identified at high elevations in the Karakoram include shifts in seasonal temperatures, snowfall, and snow cover [9]. Temperature change is expected to adversely affect the glacier and ice reserves of the Himalayan region with a potential shift in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), recession of glacier termini to higher elevations, and reduction in glacier area and ice volume [10].
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