Abstract
Climate change has caused numerous disasters around the world. It has also influenced the climate of Taiwan, with urban areas exhibiting a temperature increase by 1 °C between 1998 and 2020. In this study, climate change and landslides in Taiwan were statistically analyzed. Cumulative annual precipitation in mountain watersheds in central Taiwan exhibit a declining trend and is lower than that in urban areas. The relatively few typhoons reduced the distribution of rainfall in mountain watersheds and fewer landslides. From 2017 to 2020, typhoon-induced rains caused fewer landslides than did other climate events such as the meiyu front, tropical low pressure, and southwesterly flow events. Three rainfall characteristics of landslide initiation were identified: high rainfall intensity over a short duration (<12 h), high-intensity and prolonged rainfall, and high cumulative rainfall over a long duration (>36 h). Combinations of warning models for landslides in cumulative rainfall–duration plots with rainfall intensity classification and mean rainfall intensity–duration plots with cumulative rainfall classification were presented. In recent (2018–2020) years, climate change has resulted in higher temperatures, less rainfall in mountain watersheds, and a lower rainfall threshold at which landslides are initiated by non-typhoon climate events.
Highlights
According to the World Meteorological Organization [1], the highest increase in the global average temperature since the preindustrial period was 1.1 ◦ C (2015–2019), which is0.2 ◦ C higher than the increments in global average temperature in 2011–2015
Debris flow hazards in the Minjiang River basin in China are expected to increase in the future due to an increase in heavy rainfall events caused by climate change [5]
Climate change might lead to a rise in the overall magnitude of debris flows as a result of the larger volumes of sediments delivered to channels and an increase in extreme precipitation events by the mid-21st century [7]
Summary
According to the World Meteorological Organization [1], the highest increase in the global average temperature since the preindustrial period was 1.1 ◦ C (2015–2019), which is0.2 ◦ C higher than the increments in global average temperature in 2011–2015. The changing climate is rising global temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and more heavy rainstorms and record high temperatures [2]. Climate change increases the risk of extreme weather events, such as droughts, flooding, and heat waves [1]. Changes in the global climate have caused numerous disasters worldwide, and the frequency of debris flow events has increased. Debris flow hazards in the Minjiang River basin in China are expected to increase in the future due to an increase in heavy rainfall events caused by climate change [5]. Climate change might lead to a rise in the overall magnitude of debris flows as a result of the larger volumes of sediments delivered to channels and an increase in extreme precipitation events by the mid-21st century [7]
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