Warming of Central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift

R Iestyn Woolway,Martin Schmid,Damien Bouffard,Martin T Dokulil,Christopher J Merchant,Wlodzimierz Marszelewski

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1966-4

Abstract

Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) are sensitive to atmospheric warming and have previously been shown to respond to regional changes in the climate. Using a combination of in situ and simulated surface temperatures from 20 Central European lakes, with data spanning between 50 and ∼100 years, we investigate the long-term increase in annually averaged LSWT. We demonstrate that Central European lakes are warming most in spring and experience a seasonal variation in LSWT trends. We calculate significant LSWT warming during the past few decades and illustrate, using a sequential t test analysis of regime shifts, a substantial increase in annually averaged LSWT during the late 1980s, in response to an abrupt shift in the climate. Surface air temperature measurements from 122 meteorological stations situated throughout Central Europe demonstrate similar increases at this time. Climatic modification of LSWT has numerous consequences for water quality and lake ecosystems. Quantifying the response of LSWT increase to large-scale and abrupt climatic shifts is essential to understand how lakes will respond in the future.

Highlights

Climate warming is occurring globally and is a first-order control that can affect lakes through a complex series of indirect and direct mechanisms, such as its influence on the catchment and on lake thermal and hydrological budgets (Adrian et al 2009)
On a month-by-month basis, all months for the 20 Central European lakes show warming from 1961 to 2010 and a clear seasonal pattern emerges with peak Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) warming in late spring (Fig. 2a)
In autumn, from September to November, LSWT trends (0.16 °C decade−1) are almost one-third of those calculated in spring and summer

Summary

Introduction

Climate warming is occurring globally and is a first-order control that can affect lakes through a complex series of indirect and direct mechanisms, such as its influence on the catchment and on lake thermal and hydrological budgets (Adrian et al 2009). An important primary response of a lake to climatic warming is change in lake surface water temperature (LSWT), with potential. Climatic Change (2017) 142:505–520 consequences for a broad range of physical, ecological and socioeconomic factors. Rising LSWT can influence lake evaporation leading to impacts on water level (Gronewold and Stow 2014) with consequences for commercial shipping, hydropower facilities and water security (Vörösmarty et al 2000). Climatic modification of LSWT has, important implications for local economies, which depend on lakes for drinking water, agricultural irrigation, recreation and tourism. A detailed understanding of LSWT warming, and the factors that control it, is essential for climate change impact and water management studies

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