Multi-decadal change in summer mean water temperature in Lake Konnevesi, Finland (1984–2021)

Abstract

Depth-resolved water temperature data on the thermal environment of lakes are often hindered by sparse temporal frequency, limited depth resolution, or short duration that create many challenges for long-term analysis. Where high frequency and depth-resolved data exist, they can provide a wealth of knowledge about how lakes are responding to a changing climate. In this study, we analyzed around 950 profiles of summer mean water temperature (July to September), which includes about 30,600 unique observations, from a subarctic lake (Lake Konnevesi, Finland) to understand the changes in lake surface water temperature (LSWT), lake deepwater temperature (LDWT), and lake volumetrically weighted mean temperature (LVWMT) from 1984 to 2021. Statistical analysis of this dataset revealed a substantial warming of LSWT (0.41 °C decade−1) and LVWMT (0.32 °C decade−1), whilst LDWT remained unchanged (0.00 °C decade−1). Our analysis using a generalized additive model suggested the inter-annual variability in LSWT and LVWMT correlated significantly with the upward trends of summer mean air temperature and solar radiation, but suggested no significant effect of observed changes in ice departure dates and near-surface wind speed. None of the investigated predictors correlated with the change in the LDWT. Due to the variable response of lake surface and bottom water temperature to climate change in this subarctic lake, our data suggest a substantial increase in lake thermal stability. Our study supports the growing literature on lake thermal responses to climate change, and illustrates the unique contrast of climate change impacts at the surface and at depth in lake ecosystems, with deep waters acting as a potential thermal refuge to aquatic organisms within a warming world.