Warming and Wetting will continue over the Tibetan Plateau in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Abstract

We have used bias-corrected data from CMIP6 models to drive a regional climate model and project climate on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in the 21st century. Changes in two background fields, namely, 2-meter air temperature and total precipitation, were analyzed. The results show that the WRF simulations capture the terrain effect that cannot be represented in low-resolution models. The simulation of temperature is better in summer than in winter, while the simulated precipitation is the opposite. By the end of the 21st century, the entire TP region experiences significant warming, with an average warming of 3°C and 7°C in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The western region shows a greater warming amplitude, with a maximum of more than 10°C in the SSP585 scenario. Most regions of the TP had significant increases in precipitation by the end of the 21st century, with precipitation increasing by 90 mm and 200 mm in the two scenarios, respectively. However, in the low-altitude areas of southeastern TP, total winter precipitation is significantly reduced in the SSP585 scenario. The strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon and westerly disturbances collectively leads to a significant increase in precipitation within the TP region. By the end of the 21st century, the average annual precipitation in the TP is projected to reach approximately 600 millimeters.