The Disparity in Normalized Difference Vegetarian Index Response to Climate Warming and Humidification in the Tibetan Plateau before and after 1998

Abstract

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) serves as a crucial ecological barrier in Asia, with vegetation playing a pivotal role in the terrestrial ecosystem by facilitating energy exchange between the land and atmosphere, regulating climate, and participating in the carbon cycle. In this study, we analyze the characteristics of surface vegetation on the TP in the growing season during 1982–2018 using satellite remote sensing data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD). We investigate how these characteristics respond to climate change under different warming and humidification conditions across the TP. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values on the TP exhibit a gradual decrease from southeast to northwest during the growing season. There is a significant overall increasing trend at a climate tendency rate of 0.01·decade−1 (p < 0.01) from 1982 to 2018, characterized by a notable mutation of around 1998. Over the past 37 years, a polarized trend of vegetation was observed on the TP, with notable improvement in its central and eastern regions. However, there has been noticeable degradation in northwestern TP, specifically within the Kunlun Mountains and Qaidam Basin. (2) The climate of the TP demonstrates distinct regional disparities in terms of warming and humidification characteristics before and after 1998. During the period of 1982–1998 (1998–2018), the temperature increase is primarily concentrated in the northern (southern) TP, while precipitation increase is mainly observed in the southern and northwestern (northeastern and western) regions of the TP. (3) The responses of surface vegetation to climate factors exhibit significant variations across diverse climatic backgrounds. It is noteworthy that moisture conditions have a substantial impact on the response of vegetation to air temperature on the TP. During the period of 1982–1998, under relatively insufficient moisture conditions, a positive correlation was observed between air temperature and surface vegetation in the humid and semi-humid regions of the southeastern TP, while a negative correlation was found in the semi-arid regions of northeastern TP. During 1998–2018, as moisture conditions became relatively sufficient, surface vegetation in the semi-arid regions showed positive correlations with both temperature and precipitation. However, surface vegetation in the humid and semi-humid regions exhibited a significant negative correlation with precipitation. During this period, the synergistic effects between warm and humid climates in the semi-arid regions of northeastern TP and warm and dry climates in humid and semi-humid regions of southeastern TP substantially enhanced surface vegetation on the TP. Furthermore, our results indicate that thermal factors (air temperature) primarily influence variations in surface vegetation within the high-altitude arid region of the TP. During 1998–2018, a significant cooling trend was observed in the northwestern TP, which could potentially account for the degradation of surface vegetation in the Kunlun Mountains. The findings of this study establish a scientific basis for the sustainable development of grassland ecosystems on the TP.