Abstract
Woody plant encroachment (WPE) has been widely studied, yet the spatiotemporal pattern of global WPE and its drivers remain unclear. Here, based on long-term remote sensing observations, we investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of global WPE from 2001 to 2020 and assessed the contributions of the changes in main environmental factors. We found a significantly increasing WPE trend (0.25% a −1 , P < 0.01), resulting from a pronounced gain and a slight loss in woody vegetation (0.29% a −1 and 0.04% a −1 , P < 0.01, respectively). The global pattern of trends was characterized by large spatial heterogeneity, with 82.95% of areas experiencing an expansion in woody plants. We then used a random forest model incorporating key environmental factors to investigate the complicated driving mechanisms of global WPE. Our results identified warming and elevated CO 2 concentrations as the primary drivers of global WPE dynamics, given their substantial contributions to WPE trends (0.66% a −1 and 0.32% a −1 , P < 0.01, respectively). Changing precipitation regime was crucial, but its contributions to the WPE trends showed great spatial heterogeneity and offset each other, ultimately leading to a smaller contribution (0.09% a −1 , P < 0.05). In contrast, varying radiation and burned areas had minimal effects (−0.04% a −1 , P > 0.05 and −0.03% a −1 , P < 0.01). We also found that the effects of local factors, such as human activities and natural disturbances, on WPE were non-negligible (0.07% a −1 , P < 0.01). Our study provides a comprehensive picture of the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of global WPE, enhancing our understanding of biome transitions in response to environmental changes.
Published Version
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