War in Ukraine, the refugee crisis, and the polish housing market

Abstract

The ongoing war in Ukraine has become a global issue and caused a major refugee crisis in Europe. The displacement of millions of people from Ukraine, who entered neighbouring countries, attributed to a housing demand shock in host cities and subsequent increases in rents and prices. The article investigates the housing market reaction in Poland’s five largest cities caused by the arrival of refugees from Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February 2022. We use a difference-in-difference quasi-experimental scenario to test whether exposure to mass refugee inflow translates to housing market dynamics. According to our findings, an increase in a city population of 1 pp caused by the inflow of refugees led to a 0.72–0.74% increase in housing rents. Additionally, we found some evidence that the arrival of migrants may have slightly increased apartment prices; however, the impact is smaller than in the case of rents and statistically significant only in selected specifications. The paper contributes to the literature on the impact of immigration or refugee inflow on housing market dynamics. The rent increases reported in this study may have serious housing policy implications, both in the short and mid-run.