Has the war in Ukraine changed Europeans’ preferences on refugee policy? Evidence from a panel experiment in Germany, Hungary and Poland

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 resulted in the largest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII. Using a unique panel conjoint experiment on refugee policy preferences carried out in Germany, Poland and Hungary just before and after the onset of the war in Ukraine, we show a heterogenous response to the influx of refugees from Ukraine across the three countries: no change of policy preferences in Germany, moderate change in Hungary and a significant change in Poland. Our results have direct implications for the development of a common EU asylum policy, as even though the countries persistently diverge on the preferred mode of asylum seekers’ allocation, with Germans favouring relocation and Poland and Hungary the status quo, the results highlight the scope for consensus rooted in shared preference for the asylum seekers’ unrestricted access to the labour market. This dimension consistently emerges as the most important policy dimension in all three countries before and after the outbreak of war.